ECONOMIC IMPACT ON PALM OIL STOCK RETURNS IN MALAYSIA, SINGAPORE, AND INDONESIA: A NARDL MODEL ANALYSIS

<jats:p>The study examines the relationship between Malaysia’s economic conditions and the returns on palm oil stocks in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore. The non-linear autoregressive distributed lag framework was used to analyse the asymmetric impact of Malaysian macroeconomic factors on palm oil stock returns in each country. The findings reveal that the exchange, inflation, and unemployment rates, as well as gold and crude oil prices, strongly influence the long-term returns of palm oil stock. Specifically, unfavourable changes in crude oil prices significantly impact palm oil stock returns. Other key variables also show significant associations with palm oil stock returns, both positively and negatively. In conclusion, investors and stakeholders should take Malaysia’s general economic situation into account when developing investment plans, in addition to fluctuations in the returns on palm oil stocks.</jats:p>